Note: The presentation has been updated to correct the terminology. What was previously identified as Probability of Detection (PoD) was actually Success Ratio (1-FAR)
Note 2: This work should still be considered preliminary. The severe weather report database is riddled with problems as is commented on by numerous papers in scientific literature. Results may change as better data, such as county level tornado data, become available. However, I stand by the fact that Tornado Emergencies should be so good that even preliminary results capture their usefulness.
Here is a link to download my presentation on Tornado Emergencies from today’s National Severe Weather Workshop. I firmly believe the NWS is standing on a precipice, and the entire meteorological community needs to take a moment and figure things out before it’s too late. This presentation is designed to start a conversation; let the discussion begin!