Playing with Data

Personal Views Expressed in Data

Climatological Estimates and Evolution of Local Daily Severe Weather Probabilities: Part 3

For the final post (at least for now) in this sequence of estimating the climatological probability of an occurrence of some sort of severe weather phenomena, I turn my attention to day 1 severe weather outlooks from the Storm Prediction Center.

I used a similar method as with the previous graphics, however, because the severe weather outlooks are larger in size than severe weather reports, I used a smaller spatial smoother. (In fact, you can do the analysis without using a spatial smoother, but the probability edges are jagged.) The spatial smoother is 80km, and affects the resulting probability magnitudes by less than 1% for slight risks.

For more animations, check out the original post, the “non-significant” severe first post in this series, or the "significant severe" second post! As with the previous graphics, the raw images should become available on the Storm Prediction Center’s website in the coming weeks.

Because the image quality is a bit degraded in the animations, the color scales for each animation are listed below.

Slight Risk (or greater): 5%, 10%, 15%, 20%, 25%, 30%, 35%, 40+%
Moderate Risk (or greater): 1.00%, 2.00%, 3.00%, 4.00%, 5.00%, 6.00%, 7.00%, 8.00+%
High Risk: 0.05%, 0.1%, 0.25%, 0.40%, 0.55%, 0.70%, 0.85%, 1.00+%